⏰ 25 BTC Filled in 24 Hours
🎙️ Jakob On Good For Bitcoin
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

This week, we broke a new record.

The hBTC cap filled in under 24 hours, faster than the first public allocation window, which filled in two days. Demand for BTC yield continues to outpace supply. The next deposit window opens soon for waitlisted users. Join the list now to secure your spot.

In parallel, I took hBTC to Good for Bitcoin this week, a show spotlighting top Bitcoin builders. The conversation focused on what separates institutional-grade BTC yield from the rest of the market, and where hBTC fits within that. The recap is live.

We had a busy week. The kind I like.

hBTC’s latest 25 BTC capacity filled in 24 hours.

Demand for BTC yield continues to outpace supply. The second deposit window moved faster than the first, which filled 25 BTC in two days.

The hBTC protocol now has more than 75 BTC allocated and earning. It continues to perform as designed, with risk controls, full transparency, and an all-time average yield of 5.3% APY.

The next allocation window opens soon for waitlisted users. Join the list now to secure your spot.

Bitcoin yield gets talked about a lot. This week, Jakob talked about it right.

Jakob took hBTC to Good for Bitcoin, a show spotlighting top Bitcoin builders. He broke down what most BTC yield products get wrong and how hBTC is built differently.

The conversation highlighted four things that make hBTC institutional-grade: yield earned and paid in BTC, rules-based risk controls, real-time on-chain reporting, and yield sourced from blue-chip strategies, including basis and digital credit through STRC.

As more institutional capital looks for productive Bitcoin exposure, the bar for yield will keep rising. hBTC is the product that fits that demand.

Watch the recap to hear Jakob make the full case.

HODL used to mean: sit still and wait.

Now it can mean BTC earning 4.5% and stables earning 9.9%.

Bitcoin sold off for a third consecutive week, trading near $73,700 versus $77,300 last week. It traded as high as $80,500 before moving to $72,500 on Wednesday, triggering ~$923M in 24-hour crypto liquidations. 

U.S. indices made new closing highs as capital continued moving into AI and semiconductor stocks. Technology-sector funds received $6.94B in the week through May 20, even as global equity fund flows turned negative. Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, continue to see outflows, suggesting the marginal risk buyer remains focused on AI equities rather than crypto. 

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin is below every SMA except the 200-week SMA. The April recovery has lost momentum, and the immediate trend has turned bearish. A reclaim of the $75,800-$78,600 cluster is needed before the market can make a meaningful attempt at $80,000. 

Price has little technical support below $72,000 until the $67,000 range floor and the 200-week SMA at $61,500, which marked broad bottom regions in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Support levels are $72,000, $67,000, and $61,500, while resistance levels are $75,800, $78,300-$78,600, $82,000, and $94,400.

Net outflows totaled $1.273B this week.

Outflows exceeded last week’s by $64M despite the U.S. market being closed Monday for Memorial Day, marking the third consecutive week of material ETF selling. Across four sessions, the ETF complex lost $100.9M, $105.2M, $333.6M, and $733.4M. 

Hyperliquid ETFs have attracted $104M since launch, including $20.4M on Tuesday while Bitcoin ETFs saw redemptions. The amount is small relative to Bitcoin ETF outflows, but it shows crypto ETF demand fragmenting as the larger speculative bid shifts toward AI equities.

DVOL fell to 37.22% from 38.26% despite Bitcoin breaking below key moving averages and Wednesday’s selloff triggering roughly $923M in 24-hour leveraged liquidations. Unlike February, when similar forced selling pushed implied volatility sharply higher, volatility sellers absorbed this move, and the market priced the decline as orderly. Figure 5 places DVOL near the low end of its one-year range, far below February’s spike.

Basis is positive across all maturities, rising to 2.61% APR from 2.34% despite Bitcoin selling off. Front contracts are above spot, and deferred positions still offer positive carry, but 2.61% APR is well below the 5%-8% range typical of stronger Bitcoin markets. 

Figure 6 shows a compressed front end rather than a normal upward slope. June 5 trades at 2.47%, June 12 at 2.11%, and June 19 marks the low at 2.03%. The curve then rises to 2.71% on June 26 and continues higher through March 2027, with a 1.16 percentage-point spread from low to high.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29, citing geopolitical uncertainty. The latest PCE print showed inflation running at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core, limiting liquidity relief while energy and supply-chain pressures feed inflation. That leaves Bitcoin dependent on private demand as capital favors other risk assets.

Headlines point to more progress in U.S.-Iran talks. The two sides reached an outline for a possible 60-day extension, but it still requires formal approval. Brent settled near $94.29 on Wednesday after falling on expectations that shipping conditions could improve. 

U.S. indices closed at records Wednesday as memory-chip stocks rallied and Micron crossed a $1T valuation. AI equities still have an earnings anchor supporting valuations through a difficult macro backdrop, while Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages after $2.482B of ETF outflows over the last two review periods.

Marginal capital continues to favor AI equities over crypto. Until ETF flows and futures carry improve, rallies into the $75,800-$78,600 SMA cluster look like relief moves within a downtrend rather than the start of a new advance.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team