🗞️ Exclusive: hBTC Access Opens Soon
🪙 USDh Runes Redemption Live 
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

This week, we moved some pieces on our internal board.

The first move is exclusive to you. We are once again opening hBTC access in the coming weeks, and weekly readers are hearing it before anyone else. If you are not on the waitlist yet, join before the next allocation window opens.

Second, USDh on Runes is officially sunset. If you hold USDh on Runes, your redemption window is now live in the app. USDh on Stacks remains live and unaffected.

Two moves, both in the same direction. Forward.

You heard it here first: the next hBTC waitlist cohort opens May 27th.

The waitlist continues to grow, and one question keeps coming up: when does access open again?

Now we have the answer. Invitations for the next deposit window go directly to waitlisted emails in the coming weeks.

Since launch, hBTC has performed exactly as designed. Yield has averaged 4.89% APY, and all risk controls have remained within their target ranges.

New deposits enter a product that already proved itself.

If you are not on the waitlist yet, now is the time to join. The next allocation window opens soon, and waitlist members go first.

USDh on Runes is now sunset.

Holders with balances above $10 can now redeem USDh and sUSDh on Runes for BTC directly in the Hermetica app. 

sUSDh on Runes no longer earns staking yield, and new Runes activity is no longer supported in the Hermetica app. 

The USDh platform on Stacks is unaffected; the products remain live and fully supported.

The redemption app is now live. Redeem your USDh on Runes for BTC.

A week with Hermetica:

Idle capital isn't really our thing.

Bitcoin traded back below $80,000 and settled near $79,600, driven by $1.251B in spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows since Thursday, which erased most of the prior week’s $1.699B inflow.

Equities again diverged from Bitcoin: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records led by tech, while Bitcoin did not follow.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin is below the 7-day SMA and just above the 30-day SMA, showing cooled short-term momentum without fully breaking the April recovery. The key test is the 180-day SMA at $79,600; a sustained close above reopens $82,800–$86,000 as resistance zones, while a move below puts $78,200 and $75,000 as support zones. Major resistance remains the 360-day SMA at $95,600, while the 200-week SMA at $60,900 is structural cycle support.

Net outflows totaled $1.251B this week.

Flows reversed from last week’s $1.699B inflow, driven by broad outflows on May 13 across IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and GBTC. The ETF complex has shifted from marginal buyer to marginal seller in the last two weeks, as Bitcoin tests the 180-day SMA.

DVOL sits at 38.13%, slightly below last week’s 38.42% and near the bottom of the 35%-45% range seen before recent geopolitical tensions. The decline is notable because spot weakened and ETF flows turned negative. Current price action remains favorable for vol sellers, as Bitcoin is not rising fast enough to materially increase risk for call sellers.

The February spike toward 90% now reads as an event shock, not a regime shift. Covered-call supply against IBIT, Strategy-linked securities, and miners has compressed implied volatility, improving the setup for long-vol strategies.

The equal-weighted basis spread fell to 1.79% APR from 2.29%. Basis is still positive across the curve, but the front end remains weak for a market near $80,000. 

Figure 6 shows normal contango, with the curve rising from the front end to March 2027: May 22 at 0.69%, May 29 at 0.75%, June 5 at 0.66%, June 26 at 1.65%, July 31 at 2.00%, September 25 at 2.53%, December 25 at 2.98%, and March 2027 at 3.10%. The spread between the lowest and highest maturity is 2.44%. Near-zero perp funding and low basis indicate the rally is not being driven by levered longs.

The Fed held the federal funds range at 3.50%-3.75% on April 29. April PPI was above target, with final demand up 6.0% year over year and core PPI up 5.3%.

Geopolitical developments involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran continue as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Brent averaged $117/b in April, touched $138/b, and is expected to remain elevated as inventories draw down. 

VIX near 17.9 and MOVE/US10Y near 15.7 remain calm relative to the energy shock. Against that backdrop, crypto shows relative underperformance versus broader financial assets, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 at new highs while Bitcoin remains 37% below its highs and other cryptocurrencies sit in deeper drawdowns.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team