🗞️ Crypto Wins the SEC Over
🏦 Mastercard Doubles Down on Crypto
💰 USDh Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

I did not expect a legal update to be my big news this week, but it was.

The SEC clarified that digital commodities, collectibles, tools, and some payment stablecoins fall outside securities law. Clear regulations like this make the space approachable for major institutions. 

Mastercard is already moving deeper into digital asset infrastructure through its Crypto Partner Program and planned acquisition of BVNK.

I’m watching to see who enters crypto next.

The SEC has established a new legal baseline for crypto in the US.

The March 17 release classifies digital commodities, collectibles, tools, and some payment stablecoins as non-securities. Mining, staking, one-for-one wrapping, and some airdrops do not, by themselves, amount to securities transactions. 

Tokenized securities stay subject to the same securities laws that apply to stocks, bonds, and other TradFi instruments. Putting an asset on-chain does not change its legal character if the underlying instrument is still a security.

Defined legal framework for crypto markets, with clearer boundaries around where securities laws apply, makes crypto accessible to everyone, especially institutions looking to enter the space and protocols looking to expand their services in the US.

Mastercard is going all in on crypto.

First, it launched a Crypto Partner Program bringing together more than 100 crypto-native companies, payments providers, and financial institutions to shape how on-chain payments plug into existing commerce flows.

Then it went further, announcing an agreement to acquire BVNK for up to $1.8 billion, linking stablecoin infrastructure to the reach, compliance, and settlement layers that already power global payments.

Mastercard, which processed $10.6 trillion in gross dollar volume in 2025, alongside a growing list of global financial players, are actively looking for ways to integrate crypto infrastructure that fits their mandates.

As crypto increasingly becomes a necessary layer of financial infrastructure across industries, we’ll be there to build the reliable yield systems the system demands.

8% APY this week.

Another week of earning.

Bitcoin reached a six-week high of $75,912 on Tuesday, driven by derivatives activity, including the closure of large $60,000 put positions, before reversing after the FOMC meeting to near $70,600 by Thursday. Strategy ($MSTR) announced its largest Bitcoin purchase of 2026 on Monday, buying 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion at an average price of $70,194 and bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC.

The S&P 500 fell 1.4% on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. On Thursday, all three major indices breached their 200-day moving averages for the first time since mid-2025, triggering algorithmic selling. Bitcoin’s decoupling from equities became more pronounced, the 30-day S&P correlation declined to ~0.40. Bitcoin also fell after FOMC, continuing a pattern seen after seven of the past eight Fed meetings since early 2025.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMA) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin remains above its 30-day SMA for a third straight week, but fell below the 7-day SMA after the failed rally to $75,900. The 7-day and 30-day SMAs are now converging in the $69,000 to $72,000 range, forming a consolidation base. Bitcoin trades below the 180-day and 360-day moving averages, keeping the intermediate-term downtrend intact. The 200-week SMA near $59,000 continues to mark structural support, while $75,900 is now confirmed as resistance.

Support levels are $68,000, $65,000, $60,000, and $59,000, while resistance levels are $74,400, $76,000, $80,000, and $86,000.

Net inflows totaled ~$326 million week-over-week.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded the longest inflow streak since October 2025, with seven consecutive days of inflows from March 9-17 totaling $1.16 billion. The streak ended on Monday, coinciding with the FOMC meeting. There was $129 million in outflows, bringing cumulative net inflows to $56.41 billion. Total net assets rose to $96.74 billion from $88.34 billion at the start of the streak.

DVOL is 53.46%, down slightly from 54% last week despite Bitcoin printing a $5,300 range and briefly reaching a six-week high. Tuesday’s derivatives-driven rally, fueled by put closures, left market-maker positioning largely unchanged by week’s end. DVOL remains in the 87th percentile over the past year, above the 35% to 42% range seen before the selloff but below February’s 90% spike. The post-crash 50% to 55% regime is now in its third week, a break from the multi-year DVOL downtrend that persisted through January 2026.

The TradFi vol-suppression thesis, driven by systematic ETF call selling, covered calls on treasury companies, and market-maker delta hedging, has partially returned as options desk liquidity improves, but wider bid-ask spreads show tail risk remains repriced. Continued range-bound price action reduces realized and implied volatility, while a breakout in either direction could reset the regime.

The equal-weighted basis spread is 2.61% APR, down slightly from 2.68% last week, pausing its recovery from February’s 1.73% low. Basis is positive across all maturities, with no front-month backwardation. Tuesday’s rally briefly lifted front-month basis before the post-FOMC selloff reversed most of the activity. The curve remains in normal contango, with perp funding neutral. Open interest is rebuilding but is well below January peaks. Basis needs to return to the 5%-8% APR range seen in late 2024 for the derivatives market to be considered normalized.

The Fed voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Updated projections raised 2026 inflation from 2.4% to 2.7% in December, while GDP was left at 2.4% and unemployment at 4.4%.

Meanwhile, the $2.1 trillion private credit market is showing its most acute stress since 2008. Fitch Ratings reported U.S. private credit defaults at a record 9.2%, more than double the broadly syndicated loan market. Redemption pressure has also intensified: Blackstone’s BCRED faced $6.5 billion in withdrawal requests. For Bitcoin, the relevance is liquidity: if private credit funds draw on bank credit lines to meet redemptions, broader financial conditions tighten.

Geopolitical developments drove a repricing in energy markets. Energy was the sole outperformer, with XOP up more than 25% year to date. Brent Crude rose above $119 intraday on Thursday before settling at $108.65, its highest close since July 2022, while WTI settled at $96.14. Since February 28, Brent has risen by roughly 80%. Physical Middle Eastern crude also moved to extreme premiums, with Oman settling above $152 versus $96 for WTI, far beyond the normal $5-$8, which may indicate supply scarcity in Asia. The move followed strikes on energy infrastructure across the region and continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold had its worst week since February 1983, falling about 10% as dollar strength absorbed safe-haven flows and margin calls drove liquidation. The DXY rose to about 99.4, the VIX closed at 25.09, up 12%, and the 10-year yield increased to 4.26%. Cross-asset correlations stayed elevated amid forced deleveraging, with Bitcoin a notable exception as it continued to show greater resilience to equity drawdowns.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team