🗞️ What Changed Since April
🏛️ Wall Street Moves On-Chain
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

I spent the early part of the week looking back over the past 90 days.

Q2 changed the shape of Hermetica. We expanded beyond Bitcoin-backed dollar yield into Bitcoin-backed credit and BTC-denominated yield. Q3 is already opening new paths.

This week, DTCC, the core depository and settlement infrastructure for U.S. securities, tokenized Treasuries and equities already held in its system and used them in live transactions with nearly 40 major Wall Street firms.

This moves a much larger pool of institutional assets on-chain, expanding the universe of high-quality yield sources available to Hermetica’s products.

Q2 changed the shape of Hermetica.

We entered the quarter primarily known for a Bitcoin-native stablecoin and dollar yield. We ended it with a broader platform spanning stablecoins, dollar yield, Bitcoin-backed credit, and BTC yield.

Q2 began with the integration of STRC into sUSDh, adding Bitcoin-backed credit alongside basis. USDh now earns from two distinct yield engines.

The quarter’s biggest milestone was the launch of hBTC.

hBTC earns and compounds returns in Bitcoin from a variety of sources, including basis, STRC, and Stacks Dual Staking.

Demand accelerated with each allocation window. The first 25 BTC public allocation filled in two days. The next filled in under 24 hours. At its peak, more than 75 BTC was allocated and earning.

The products performed as designed.

hBTC ended the quarter with a 4.20% all-time average APY and positive yield on 99% of days. Leverage and delta remained within defined bounds.

USDh held its peg through volatility in both BTC and STRC, delivered an average APY of 7%, and remained fully backed. Copper and Ceffu independently attested USDh’s reserves throughout the quarter, with the latest reports covering June 2026.

Q2 laid the foundation for what comes next. Q3 will bring deeper integrations and new earning opportunities.

The next phase is already taking shape. Explore the yield opportunities available today and be part of what comes next.

Tokenization just moved into the heart of Wall Street’s infrastructure.

For the first time, DTCC tokenized U.S. Treasuries and equities already held in its depository and used them in live production transactions.

Nearly 40 firms, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Vanguard, and the New York Stock Exchange, tested the assets across trading, collateral, lending, repo, and margin workflows.

The breakthrough is that these assets can move on-chain without giving up the ownership rights, entitlements, or investor protections of their traditional counterparts.

For Hermetica, that broadens the opportunity. More institutional assets on-chain means a wider universe of high-quality yield sources.

USDh already earns from tokenized credit through STRC. As more institutional assets come on-chain, its yield stack can expand with them.

A good week leaves you with more.

hBTC earned 1.5% APY.
USDh earned 8.0% APY.

Compounding continues at Hermetica.

Bitcoin traded higher near $64,300, above the 200-week SMA at $62,519 and the 30-day SMA at $62,882. Cooler CPI and PPI weakened the dollar and helped equities and crypto beta recover, while mixed ETF flows, renewed energy risk, and a still-restrictive Fed limited Bitcoin’s move above $65,000. 

Strategy did not buy or sell Bitcoin this week. Instead, it raised roughly $467M through common-stock sales, lifting its dollar reserve to about $3B while keeping holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC. The current price move appears less driven by a single balance-sheet buyer and more by a macro-led relief bid supported by spot demand, short-covering, and broader risk appetite.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin held above its 200-week SMA near $62,519 after reclaiming it last week. That level marked broad cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Price is now near $64,334, trading above the 7-day SMA at $64,009 and the 30-day SMA at $62,882. The 200-week SMA remains the key near-term support level, with the 30-day SMA sitting just above it.

The broader trend remains weak until Bitcoin reclaims the 180-day SMA at $71,372 and the 360-day SMA at $88,156. Support levels are $64,000, $62,900, and $62,500, while resistance levels are $65,000, $66,400-$67,200, and $68,900.

Net outflows totaled roughly $30.8M this week.

The spot Bitcoin ETF complex remained mixed. A large $424.66M outflow on July 13 was mostly offset by $181.08M of inflows on July 14, $107.80M on July 15, and roughly $105M on July 16, leaving the review window slightly negative. Total spot Bitcoin ETF net assets stood at $78.47B as of July 15, with cumulative net inflows at $51.14B.

Ethereum ETFs were stronger on the margin. ETH products saw a ~$44.19M single-day inflow on July 16 and roughly $54.14M of net inflows over seven days.

DVOL fell to 36.32% from 37.08% last week, putting Bitcoin implied volatility near the lower end of its one-year range. The market has continued to calm after the volatility spikes seen in February and June, even as Bitcoin trades above its 200-week SMA and holds the low-$60,000s range.

The compression suggests downside pressure has faded from the volatility surface, but it does not confirm a breakout. Periods of low implied volatility often precede a more decisive move, especially when spot is sitting between near-term support and larger trend resistance. For now, options markets are pricing stability, not panic, while Bitcoin still needs a stronger move above the mid-$60,000s to shift the broader trend.

The equal-weighted basis across visible 7D+ maturities is 3.88% APR, with the curve remaining positive across the full term structure. There is a small front-end dip, but no sign of the stress seen earlier in the month. July 31 is the curve low at 3.59%, while March 26, 2027 is the curve high at 4.17%, leaving a low-to-high spread of roughly 0.6 percentage points.

Beyond the front maturities, the curve is tightly clustered. The back end is modestly upward sloping, which points to stable positive carry rather than aggressive bull-market positioning. Carry has improved, but the curve still sits below the 5%-8% range that would normally characterize stronger bull-market conditions.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the FOMC has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” after holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% in June. He also flagged AI investment as a growing macro variable, with equipment investment up roughly 8% year over year in Q1 and high-tech spending up nearly 25% on a four-quarter basis.

Inflation data gave markets relief. June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year, while core CPI was unchanged on the month and up 2.6% annually. Treasury yields stayed elevated despite the softer prints, with the 2-year at 4.18%, the 10-year at 4.58%, and the 30-year at 5.08% in the Fed’s July 15 H.15 release for July 14.

Renewed U.S.-Iran geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz added energy risk back into the macro picture. Brent rose more than 4% earlier in the week before settling at $84.23, while WTI settled at $78.95. If oil stays elevated, energy can quickly shift from a disinflationary force back into headline inflation pressure.

Japan also introduced a structural pressure point for U.S. rates. Policymakers are pushing large domestic pools of capital, including the ¥293.6T GPIF, toward Japanese financial assets. Even a gradual shift would mean less Japanese capital flowing into foreign bonds, including Treasuries. For Bitcoin, the link runs through liquidity. If Japan retains more capital at home, the U.S. Treasury market loses a major marginal buyer. Over time, that raises the pressure for higher yields, new foreign/private demand, or more Fed balance-sheet support. The last path matters most for Bitcoin because Fed balance-sheet expansion has historically been one of BTC’s strongest liquidity tailwinds.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team