🛡️ The Quantum Security Race
📰 Trezor Data Breach
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

This week, I was reminded that quantum risk may be distant, but the preparation cannot be.

Google Cloud published its post-quantum cryptography roadmap, targeting full readiness by 2029. Quantum-safe key exchange is already live on Cloud API endpoints, with NIST-standardized algorithms available through Cloud KMS. Bitcoin researchers are preparing in parallel, supported in part by the newly launched Bitcoin Security Consortium. Q-Day is not imminent, but serious infrastructure is preparing well before it arrives.

Closer to today’s risks, one of Trezor’s shipping providers, ShipMonk, suffered a data breach exposing personal information for nearly 14,000 customers. No seed phrases or funds were compromised, but names, emails, phone numbers, and order details can make phishing attempts far more convincing.

If your data was exposed, treat every unsolicited wallet-related message with caution.

Google Cloud has laid out its post-quantum cryptography roadmap, targeting full PQC readiness by 2029.

The transition is already underway, with quantum-safe key exchange live on Cloud API endpoints, support across load balancers, and NIST-standardized algorithms available through Cloud KMS.

Google is part of a broader shift. NIST has standardized the first post-quantum algorithms and expects vulnerable cryptography to be phased out of its standards by 2035. The UK, Canada, and EU member states are also preparing migration roadmaps.

Bitcoin is already preparing for the same transition.

Researchers are exploring post-quantum signatures, migration paths, and ways to protect vulnerable coins. The newly launched Bitcoin Security Consortium is also funding long-term security research, including post-quantum cryptography.

Bitcoin upgrades require broad consensus, so starting early gives the ecosystem time to evaluate tradeoffs before the threat becomes urgent.

At Hermetica, we are following the work closely and evaluating relevant security standards as they mature.

Google’s roadmap shows what post-quantum migration looks like in practice.

A third-party breach put wallet-user security back in focus this week.

One of Trezor’s shipping providers, ShipMonk, suffered a data breach exposing personal information for nearly 14,000 customers. Trezor said its systems and hardware wallets were not compromised, and no seed phrases or funds were exposed.

The immediate risk is not lost Bitcoin, but what attackers can do with the leaked data. Names, emails, phone numbers, addresses, and order details can make phishing attempts far more convincing, while also increasing the risk of SIM-porting and even targeted physical attacks.

Treat any unsolicited wallet-related message with caution, especially if it asks you to click a link, install an update, move funds, or enter a recovery phrase. Never enter a seed phrase into a website, form, support chat, or unfamiliar device. Use bookmarked or verified official channels for updates, secure the email and phone number tied to crypto accounts, and consider a SIM-swap lock if your number was exposed.

Read Trezor’s full update for more details on the breach.

They say nothing is certain except taxes.

Add one more: Hermetica keeping your capital productive.

This week:

hBTC: 1.4%
USDh: 8.0%

Bitcoin traded slightly lower this week, falling from last week’s close of $64,874 to $63,753. Price is now below the 7-day SMA at $64,175, the 30-day SMA at $63,789, and the 200-week SMA at $64,301. That weakens the short-term recovery structure, but BTC has not broken down decisively.

Bitcoin has faced several bearish inputs over the past weeks, including the Coldcard exploit. Strategy also adjusted its treasury position, selling BTC to increase USD reserves and repurchase STRC. Those headlines could have weighed more heavily on the market, but price held near the low-$64,000s. ETF demand and spot buying continue to absorb market stress, supported by the broader macro backdrop.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin is trading below its 200-week SMA this week, weakening the recovery after three weeks of holding above it. Price is now near $63,753, below the 7-day SMA at $64,175, the 30-day SMA at $63,789, and the 200-week SMA at $64,301. The key support zone has shifted lower to $63,000-$63,800. A break below that range would put the low-$60,000s back in view. Near-term support levels are $63,800, $63,000, and $62,000, while resistance levels are $64,300, $65,500, and $69,000.

Net outflows totaled $332.08M this week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative after last week’s strong inflows. The complex recorded $144.67M of outflows on August 10 alone. Cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows now stand at $51.85B, while total spot Bitcoin ETF net assets are $77.27B. August net inflows are now $521.46M, still ahead of July’s $172.43M total, but the latest outflow shows ETF demand has cooled from last week’s pace.

DVOL rose to 35.36% from 34.55% last week. Bitcoin implied volatility remains near the lower end of its one-year range. The move higher is modest, even with BTC still below the 200-week SMA and ETF outflows returning this week. Traders are still not paying aggressively for downside protection.

The equal-weighted basis across observed maturities rose to 4.82% APR from 4.02% last week. August 21 is now the curve high at 5.26%, while March 26, 2027 is the curve low at 4.46%, leaving a low-to-high spread of roughly 0.8 percentage points. The curve is not showing aggressive leverage demand across the full term structure, but the front end has moved into the lower end of the 5%-8% range typically seen in stronger carry conditions.

The next scheduled Fed policy meeting is September 15-16, and the July minutes are due August 19. Markets traded incoming data this week. July CPI rose only 0.1% month over month and eased to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% and slowed to 2.5% year over year. Final demand PPI was unchanged in July and slowed to 4.7% year over year, supported by lower goods and energy prices.

The main risk to the softer inflation data is energy. Recent developments suggest Strait of Hormuz constraints could remain in place until outlined conditions are met. The CPI and PPI improvement was helped by lower energy and gasoline prices, so any renewed oil shock from Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, or Iranian shipping routes could pull headline inflation back into the Fed’s reaction function.

Softer inflation helped, and ETF demand kept BTC from breaking below its support zone. But geopolitical developments keep energy risk alive, AI continues to concentrate capital in equities and infrastructure, and ETF flows have turned choppier. BTC is trading like an asset with structural buyers, but still capped by macro uncertainty and competition for liquidity.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team