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IN THIS ISSUE

🗞️ Read This Before You Sign Anything
🏛️ Wall Street Wants Clarity
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

Jakob TL;DR

This week, Blockaid's H1 2026 security report landed on my desk.

The report tracked 212 incidents and $1.1 billion in losses, with some of the largest losses stemming from routine-looking signatures. In one case, an institutional wallet lost a reported $50.4 million.

The strongest safeguard is enforced review. Use multisignature approval and a rigorous process in which multiple independent parties verify the transaction before funds can move. That is the standard we use at Hermetica. 

A major policy story also caught my attention. Wall Street firms, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi, have publicly backed the CLARITY Act, which would divide digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC. 

If enacted, the CLARITY Act could create a more viable path for products like ours to serve U.S. users.

Read This Before You Sign Anything

H1’s clearest security lesson: one signature can cost millions.

Blockaid’s H1 2026 Onchain Security Report tracked 212 incidents and $1.1 billion in losses. The largest losses extended beyond phishing to compromised keys, signing errors, bridge verification failures, and legacy contracts.

In one case, an institutional wallet signed a CoW Protocol order that exchanged its entire aEthUSDT position for roughly $35,000, causing a reported $50.4 million loss.

The danger increasingly lies in transactions that look routine but grant far more authority than expected.

The strongest safeguard is enforced review. Use multisignature approval and a rigorous process in which multiple independent parties verify the transaction before funds can move. Each reviewer should assess not only what the transaction does immediately, but what authority it grants afterward. That is the standard we use at Hermetica.

Hermetica also treats transaction clarity as part of the product experience. Our app and integrated wallets prompt users to review transaction details before they approve and sign.

As wallet permissions and delegation models evolve, we will continue assessing where users need clearer information at the point of approval.

Read Blockaid’s full report for a closer look at how on-chain security risks evolved in H1 2026.

Wall Street Wants Clarity

Wall Street is lining up behind the CLARITY Act. 

BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi have publicly backed the federal market-structure bill, which would establish clearer rules for digital assets in the United States.

The CLARITY Act would divide oversight between the SEC and CFTC, while bringing exchanges, brokers, and dealers under federal registration and customer-protection requirements.

Wall Street’s support reflects a growing need for clear rules as traditional assets move on-chain. Citi projects the tokenized-asset market could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030, led largely by equities and Treasuries. Institutions need greater certainty over how those assets can be issued, traded, and held before the market can scale.

For Hermetica, the direction is encouraging, but the details will decide the opportunity.

We are following the legislation closely and assessing whether the final framework could create a clearer path for extending access to U.S. users.

Yield Recap

This week paid in two currencies.

1.4% on hBTC
8.0% on USDh

One in Bitcoin. One in dollars.

Market Review

Bitcoin traded slightly lower this week, moving from the mid-$65,000s toward $64,700. Price remains above the 7-day SMA at $64,284, the 30-day SMA at $63,896, and the 200-week SMA at $63,568, but the move has not become a breakout.

The week was defined by macro pressure meeting spot demand. Bitcoin traded near $65,300 ahead of the FOMC, slipped toward $63,000 as AI and chip stocks sold off, ETF flows turned mixed, and pre-FOMC uncertainty rose, then recovered toward the mid-$64,000s after the Fed held rates.

Data Summary:

  • DVOL fell to 35.60% from 38.75% last week

  • Equal-weighted futures basis rose to 4.22% APR from 4.11% last week across observed dated maturities

  • The futures curve is positive across visible maturities, with a short-dated premium: August 7 is the curve high at 4.92%, while August 28 is the curve low at 3.96%

  • Perp funding rates are near zero to slightly positive

  • Total3 altcoin market cap fell to $612.58B from $614.86B last week, keeping altcoin beta largely flat and still below major longer-term moving averages

  • Bitcoin dominance is flat at 59.28%, versus 59.27% last week 

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $29.29M of net outflows so far this week, reversing last week’s $499.05M inflow

  • Strategy did not add to its Bitcoin position, keeping holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC

Figure 1: BTC Price, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: Binance/TradingView

Figure 2: Total3 Crypto Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin and Stablecoins, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Figure 3: Bitcoin Dominance, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Moving Averages

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

  • Current Price: $64,737

  • 7-Day SMA: $64,284

  • 30-Day SMA: $63,896

  • 180-Day SMA: $69,553

  • 360-Day SMA: $86,124

  • 200-Week SMA: $63,568

Bitcoin held above its 200-week SMA for a third consecutive week, but the recovery has slowed. The $63,600-$64,300 range is now the key support zone. A break below it would weaken the recovery structure and put the low-$60,000s back in view.

The medium-term downtrend remains intact until Bitcoin reclaims the 180-day SMA at $69,553, while the 360-day SMA at $86,124 remains the larger bull-trend confirmation level. Support levels are $64,300, $63,900, and $63,600, while resistance levels are $65,500, $66,600, and $69,600.

BTC ETF Flows

Net inflows totaled $203.84M this week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows stayed positive after last week's $499.05M of inflows, though the pace slowed. July is shaping up as the smallest positive inflow month of 2026, a slowdown from the stronger ETF demand seen earlier in the year. Cumulative net inflows now stand at $51.59B, while total spot Bitcoin ETF net assets are $78.76B.

Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF Net Flows, Daily Bars; 1 year; Source: The Block

Volatility

DVOL fell to 35.60% from 38.75% last week, returning Bitcoin implied volatility to the lower end of its one-year range. The decline came despite ETF flows turning negative, the Fed delivering a hawkish hold, and oil and geopolitical risk staying elevated. For now, DVOL suggests traders are no longer paying aggressively for downside protection.

Figure 5: DVOL; Bitcoin Index Price; 1 year; Source: Deribit

Basis Spread

The equal-weighted basis across observed maturities rose to 4.22% APR. The curve remains positive, but it is less tightly clustered than last week after the front end moved higher. August 7 is the curve high at 4.92%, while August 28 is the curve low at 3.96%, leaving a low-to-high spread of roughly 1.0 percentage point. Carry has improved, but most maturities still sit below the 5%-8% range typically seen in stronger bull-market conditions.

Figure 6: Futures Curve; Maturity Date, APR %; Source: Deribit

Macro

The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the decision was not dovish. The statement said economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, while inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, partly because geopolitical developments are feeding supply shocks in energy and related sectors. Long-end yields reflected the market’s view that inflation is still too high for the Fed to ease, with the 30-year Treasury reaching 5.21% on July 30, its highest level in nearly 19 years, while the 10-year traded near 4.67%. 

Geopolitical tensions kept energy risk in the macro picture. Brent rose to $92.42 on July 30, while WTI moved to $85.29 before easing to $84.13. The move was driven by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping concerns, and tighter physical supply. The EIA’s July 29 report also showed U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 7.2M barrels to 404.5M, about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team

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