This website uses cookies

Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.

IN THIS ISSUE

🎬 Hermetica on Meet The Drapers
🗞️ SATA Is Live in USDh
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

Jakob TL;DR

This week brought wins on both the company and product side.

Hermetica is now in the public-voting stage of Meet the Drapers, with a place in the finale and up to $1 million in investment on the line. After pitching in Las Vegas, public voting now determines whether we advance to the finale.

On the product side, we integrated Strive’s SATA into USDh. SATA adds a second source of Bitcoin-backed preferred income alongside STRC flowing through USDh’s reserve.

Hermetica on Meet The Drapers

Hermetica on Meet The Drapers

Hermetica is up for a place in the Meet the Drapers finale.

Jakob pitched Hermetica to Tim Draper and the Meet the Drapers panel in Las Vegas. Meet the Drapers is a global startup competition where founders pitch the Draper family for investment.

Public voting is now open to decide who advances. A place in the finale would put Hermetica back in front of the Drapers to compete for up to $1 million in investment.

Voting is free and takes less than a minute: sign in, find Hermetica and cast yours.

SATA Is Live in USDh

SATA Is Live in USDh

Hermetica has integrated Strive’s SATA into USDh.

SATA is now part of the assets backing USDh, expanding reserve income beyond Strategy’s STRC.

Hermetica holds SATA through Clear Street, a U.S. broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, with its dividends contributing directly to the yield distributed to sUSDh holders. Existing stakers earn from the new income source automatically, with no action required.

Allocations to SATA are visible on the Transparency Dashboard and included in monthly reserve attestations.

Stake USDh to earn from SATA.

Yield Recap

hBTC Yield Recap
USDh Yield Recap

Payday for your Bitcoin and your dollars.

This week:

hBTC: 1.6%
USDh: 6.8%

Idle balances could never.

Market Review

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since August, trading around $69,210, down 8.7% from last week’s $75,844. The decline accelerated after hotter U.S. inflation data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.1% and strengthened expectations of another Fed rate increase. BTC subsequently broke below $72,000 and $70,000, triggering $1.47B in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, including $1.31B in long positions.

Pressure also came from technology markets and weakening crypto demand. Nvidia fell 4.3% following Jensen Huang’s resignation, while MSCI confirmed that Strategy would be removed from major equity indexes at the end of November. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $596M in net outflows between November 9 and 11, while stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2B over 30 days, reducing capital available to buy crypto. BTC also traded at a persistent discount on Coinbase, indicating weak U.S. spot demand.

Data Summary:

  • DVOL fell to 39.62% from 41.25% last week

  • Equal-weighted futures basis rose to 6.06% across observed maturities from 5.55% last week

  • The futures curve remains positive, with November 27 the high at 7.14% and January 29, 2027 the low at 5.54%

  • Perpetual funding remains mildly positive across major venues

  • Total altcoin market cap fell to $655.31B from $730.01B last week

  • Bitcoin dominance fell to 60.14% from 60.32% last week

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $879.98M in net outflows this week, compared with $1.28B in net outflows last week

  • Strategy's November 9 filing confirmed purchases of 1,036 BTC for $81.9M at an average price of $79,012, bringing total holdings to 850,364 BTC. It also repurchased 1,887,464 STRC shares for $188.3M, with its USD Reserve at $4.77B

Figure 1: BTC Price, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: Binance/TradingView

Figure 1: BTC Price, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: Binance/TradingView

Figure 2: Crypto Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin and Stablecoins, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Figure 2: Crypto Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin and Stablecoins, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Figure 3: Bitcoin Dominance, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Figure 3: Bitcoin Dominance, Daily Candles, & Simple Moving Averages; 1 year; Source: TradingView

Moving Averages

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

  • Current Price: $69,210

  • 7-Day SMA: $73,510

  • 30-Day SMA: $78,505

  • 180-Day SMA: $72,403

  • 360-Day SMA: $75,873

  • 200-Week SMA: $68,002

Bitcoin is trading around $69,210 after breaking below $70,000 and its major daily moving averages. Immediate support sits at $68,400, followed by the 200-week SMA near $68,002. A sustained break below that level would increase the risk of a deeper decline.

Resistance sits at $70,000, followed by the 180-day SMA at $72,403 and 7-day SMA at $73,510. Above that, the 360-day SMA near $75,873 is the next major level. Reclaiming $73,510 would improve the short-term trend, while losing $68,002 would weaken Bitcoin’s longer-term technical structure.

BTC ETF Flows

Net outflows totaled $879.98M this week.

Outflows slowed from last week but remained persistent as Bitcoin fell below $70,000. Cumulative net inflows declined to $54.82B from $55.70B, while total net assets fell from $95.90B to $89.56B. November net outflows have now reached $2.16B, compared with $515.03M in October.

Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF Net Flows, Daily Bars; 1 year; Source: The Block

Figure 4: Bitcoin ETF Net Flows, Daily Bars; 1 year; Source: The Block

Volatility

DVOL fell to 39.62% from 41.25% last week despite Bitcoin declining 8.7% and breaking below $70,000. The move brings implied volatility back into the 35%-40% range seen through much of September and October. Options markets are not pricing the selloff as the start of a sustained volatility spike.

Short-dated options remain more expensive. November 14 at-the-money implied volatility is near 44%, compared with 38% for November 20 and 37% for November 27. Traders are paying more for near-term volatility and downside protection, while expectations further out remain contained.

Figure 5: DVOL; Bitcoin Index Price; 1 year; Source: Deribit

Figure 5: DVOL; Bitcoin Index Price; 1 year; Source: Deribit

Basis Spread

Bitcoin’s equal-weighted futures basis rose to 6.06% from 5.55% last week, driven by higher short-dated premiums. November 27 leads at 7.14%, while November 20 rose to 6.75%. Longer-dated contracts remain around 5.5%-5.7%.

The curve now carries a clear near-term premium, indicating stronger demand for short-dated futures while longer-term expectations remain stable. Because basis is annualized, premiums close to expiry can move sharply on relatively small price differences, so the increase does not necessarily reflect a broad rise in leverage.

Figure 6: Futures Curve; Maturity Date, APR %; Source: Deribit

Figure 6: Futures Curve; Maturity Date, APR %; Source: Deribit

Macro

U.S. inflation and renewed expectations of Fed tightening pushed Treasury yields higher this week. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, above expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation increased 0.3%. Annual producer-price inflation accelerated to 6.5%, its highest since November 2022. Fed officials also pushed the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.86% to 5.10% and the 2-year from 4.51% to 4.86%. Higher yields raise the return available in government bonds and increase financing costs across the economy.

Heavy AI infrastructure spending remained another source of pressure on technology stocks. CoreWeave reported 168% revenue growth, but expects $37B-$39B in capital expenditure this year alongside heavy interest expense, underscoring how capital-intensive AI expansion has become. Nvidia fell a further 4.3% following Jensen Huang’s resignation. Strong demand continues to support AI investment, but higher financing costs are making investors more selective about the returns required to justify that spending.

Brent crude fell to around $95.41, offering some relief from energy inflation, although supply risks remain. Bitcoin fell 8.7% to roughly $69,210 as higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and weaker technology markets reduced demand for risk assets. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $879.98M in net outflows, adding direct selling pressure. With government bonds offering higher yields and the Fed still considering further tightening, Bitcoin faces stronger competition for capital while institutional demand remains weak.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team