🛡️ Bitcoin's Quantum Breakthrough
🗞️ August, Accounted For.
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

Bitcoin developers surprised me this week.

StarkWare researchers mined the first quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction on mainnet, moving 10,000 sats in block 964,199 using a design called Quantum-Safe Bitcoin. The transaction proves that BTC can move using a quantum-resistant method without changing Bitcoin's consensus rules.

On our end, we published another Proof of Reserve. Our August attestations are live. USDh remained fully backed at 105.53%, with reserves held on-chain and independently verifiable.

Progress looks different at different layers, but both stories point to a more resilient Bitcoin economy.

Bitcoin developers made a quantum breakthrough this week.

StarkWare researchers mined the first quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction on mainnet, proving that BTC can move through a quantum-resistant transaction design without changing Bitcoin’s consensus rules. The 10,000-sat transaction was confirmed in block 964,199 using Quantum-Safe Bitcoin, or QSB.

QSB replaces the part of the transaction most exposed to quantum attacks with a hash-based method considered quantum-resistant. The complex work happens before broadcast, so Bitcoin can verify the transaction without changing its current rules.

Bitcoin developers are testing several approaches to the quantum problem, from hash-based spending methods like QSB to post-quantum signatures and migration proposals. Each experiment helps narrow the tradeoffs before Bitcoin eventually has to choose what, if anything, to adopt at the protocol level.

At Hermetica, we are following the work and evaluating which emerging standards could strengthen our security infrastructure as they mature.

USDh’s August 2026 attestation is live, confirming full collateralization with backing assets held on-chain and independently verifiable.

In summary, as of the snapshot time:

See the full breakdown of USDh’s backing in the published attestations.

Price up.

Yield still coming in.

hBTC: 1.0%
USDh: 8.0%

What a good week.

Bitcoin extended last week’s breakout, moving from $76,690 to $79,818. BTC is now pressing into the next major resistance zone, with the 360-day SMA at $82,492 acting as the main upside level. A clean move above that area would be the first strong sign that the move is shifting from a relief rally into a broader trend reversal.

Last week’s breakout was driven by policy momentum, ETF inflows, Treasury’s long-end buyback plan, and forced short-covering. This week looks more like confirmation: BTC is holding above reclaimed trend levels, while on-chain data shows modest capital inflows and demand again absorbing new issuance. Realized Cap Relative Net Position Change turned positive for the first time since May 28, reaching +0.21% by Aug. 26, while Apparent Demand-to-Issuance stayed above 1 for six consecutive days and stood at +2.52 as of August 26.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin is now trading well above the 7-day SMA at $78,481, the 30-day SMA at $67,744, the 200-week SMA at $64,593, and the 180-day SMA at $69,422. The move marks a major improvement from last week’s breakout, with BTC now pressing into resistance rather than reclaiming support.

The key near-term support zone has moved higher to $78,000-$78,500, around the 7-day SMA and the current breakout range. Below that, the more important structural support sits around $68,000-$69,500, where Bitcoin has reclaimed both the short-term holder cost basis and the 180-day SMA. Near-term resistance is now $80,000, followed by $82,500-$83,200, where the 360-day SMA at $82,492 lines up with broader long-term resistance.

Net inflows totaled $1.13B this week.

August net inflows now stand at $3.51B, up from $2.07B last week and far above July’s $172.43M. Total monthly trading volume has reached $51.88B, with weekly trading volume at $14.60B. Cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows now stand at $54.83B, while total spot Bitcoin ETF net assets rose to $100.93B.

ETF demand is still supporting the breakout, but the flow profile has changed. Last week was an aggressive demand shock; this week looks more like sustained accumulation.

DVOL fell to 41.68% from 42.81% last week, easing slightly after last week’s sharp repricing in Bitcoin implied volatility. The volatility setup is still more active than early August, but it has cooled from last week’s spike. IV Rank fell to 15.3 from 17.9, meaning current implied volatility remains low relative to the top of its one-year range. Traders are still paying more for optionality than they were during the compressed early-August range, but the decline in IV Rank and IV Percentile suggests the market is not pricing an extreme volatility event.

The equal-weighted basis across observed maturities fell to 4.39% APR from 4.86% last week. The curve remains positive, but the front-end premium cooled, with all maturities now below last week’s 5%+ front-end levels. December 25 is the curve high at 4.81%, while September 25 is the low at 3.87%, leaving a low-to-high spread of roughly 0.9 percentage points.

Treasury’s long-end buyback plan remains the main rates support. The department will at least double liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year nominal Treasuries from $2B to ~$4B per operation from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. This is not Fed QE, but it adds an official buyer to the part of the curve where long-end pressure has been most visible.

Energy remains the main risk to that support. The U.S. expanded pressure on Iran by targeting digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping, while OFAC sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels tied to Iranian revenue and procurement networks. Oil pulled back after Iran and Oman discussed a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI down nearly 7% and Brent down 9% over five days. On Aug. 26, WTI settled near $82.36 and Brent near $88.58.

The risk is not this week’s oil decline, but a renewed disruption in Hormuz or Red Sea shipping that pushes oil back up, lifts gasoline and transport costs, and brings headline inflation back into the Fed’s reaction function. That would work against the rate relief created by Treasury buybacks.

On the growth side, AI kept the economy firm. Nvidia reported $96.2B of quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year, with data-center revenue at $89B, up 117%. That reinforces the July FOMC minutes’ point that AI is now a macro input, pulling on chips, power, memory, cooling, data centers, copper, and financing. For Bitcoin, the macro read is mixed but still supportive: Treasury buybacks and ETF demand helped BTC hold the high-$70,000s, while energy risk, long-end yields, sticky inflation, and AI-linked input demand keep the Fed from giving markets a full all-clear.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team