🪙 100+ Days With STRC
🗞️ On-Chain Assets Set Records
💰 Yield Recap
📈 Weekly Market Review

This week, I spent some time taking stock.

I started with USDh, which has now spent 100+ days earning from STRC. Since integration, STRC’s dividend has risen from 11.50% to 12.00%, while USDh averaged more than 8% APY across the last two months. It’s a good early proof of what adding institutional-grade income sources can do for USDh.

Then I zoomed out to August. Bitcoin gained roughly 25%, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $3.52 billion in net inflows, stablecoin supply reached $311 billion, and tokenized RWAs hit a record $34.7 billion. Bitcoin also saw its first quantum-safe mainnet transaction. Overall, a very strong month for the Bitcoin and on-chain economy. 

September should be even more interesting.

USDh has now spent more than 100 days earning from STRC.

We integrated STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, to add a second yield source alongside BTC basis, bringing institutional digital credit income on-chain and into DeFi.

More than 100 days in, the numbers are beginning to speak for themselves. USDh has maintained a positive yield profile since the STRC integration and averaged more than 8% APY across the past two months.

STRC itself has continued to evolve underneath that yield. Since integration, Strategy has raised the dividend rate from 11.50% to 12.00% and actively supported the instrument through repurchases, including another $151.8 million recently.

STRC offers an early look at what becomes possible as more institutional-grade income sources move on-chain. USDh can draw from a broader mix of those assets and turn the income into globally accessible dollar yield.

If your stablecoins are sitting idle, swap into USDh and put them to work.

August pushed the Bitcoin and on-chain economy forward across the board.

Bitcoin gained roughly 25%, its strongest month since November 2024, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $3.52 billion in net inflows, their best month of the year.

Stablecoins kept expanding, with total supply reaching $311 billion.

Tokenized assets also set records. RWAs reached $34.7 billion, while tokenized equities hit $4.45 billion. BlackRock expanded tokenized fund access, Coinbase brought tokenized stocks to Base, and Citi prepared to custody Bitcoin alongside traditional securities.

On policy, the SEC proposed a dedicated framework for crypto capital formation, another step toward clearer rules for U.S. digital-asset markets.

Bitcoin closed the month with a security milestone of its own. StarkWare mined the first quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction on mainnet without changing Bitcoin’s consensus rules.

At Hermetica, we kept building through the month, advancing new products and integrations, publishing our August attestation, and expanding the infrastructure behind USDh.

August expanded the opportunity set across the board. September is already shaping up to be even bigger.

Checked the wallet.

USDh and hBTC are still where we left them.

There’s just more of both now.

hBTC: +0.7%
USDh: +8.0%

Bitcoin continued to hold last week’s breakout, moving from $79,818 to $81,193. BTC remains above the 7-day SMA at $78,351, the 30-day SMA at $69,793, the 200-week SMA at $64,884, and the 180-day SMA at $71,203. The next major test is still the 360-day SMA, now near $81,856, where price is pressing into the larger trend-resistance zone.

ETF demand and lower pressure on yields are helping BTC hold the high-$70,000s. Treasury’s long-end buyback plan also revived debasement hedge demand, with gold and Bitcoin rallying together as the dollar weakened. BTC is holding the breakout, but still needs stronger liquidity confirmation to clear the $81,800-$82,000 resistance zone.

Data Summary:

Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in Figure 1:

Bitcoin extended last week’s breakout, moving from $79,818 to $81,193. The key near-term support zone has moved higher to $78,000-$78,500. Below that, the more important structural support sits around $69,800-$71,200, where the 30-day and 180-day SMAs are now clustered. Holding that zone would keep the breakout structure intact. Near-term resistance is $82,000, followed by $83,000-$85,000 if BTC clears the 360-day SMA.

Net inflows totaled $812.26M this week.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows stayed positive, though below last week’s $924.48M of net inflows. Cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows now stand at $55.44B, while total spot Bitcoin ETF net assets have risen to $103.34B. September has started positive, with month-to-date inflows now at $595.56M.

DVOL fell to 38.95% from 41.68% last week, continuing the reset in Bitcoin implied volatility after the post-breakout spike. Volatility remains above the compressed early-August range, but traders are no longer paying the same premium for upside or event exposure as they were during last week’s breakout.

BTC broke out, then stopped moving aggressively. As realized volatility cooled, option premiums began to look expensive relative to the move, bringing volatility sellers back into the market. That added supply pushed implied volatility lower.

The equal-weighted basis across observed maturities fell to 3.41% APR from 4.39% last week. The curve remains positive; December 25 is the curve high at 4.55%, while September 11 is the curve low at 1.78%, leaving a low-to-high spread of 2.8 percentage points.

The front end repriced lower across the board, with September 11 at 1.78%, September 18 at 2.37%, and September 25 at 2.36%. Farther out, the curve rises into October 30 at 3.93%, November 27 at 4.35%, December 25 at 4.55%, and March 26, 2027 at 4.52%. Carry is still positive, but short-dated leverage demand has cooled.

The next FOMC meeting is Sept. 15-16, but traders have already adjusted their rate expectations after a mixed set of labor and services data. Hiring has slowed in the private payroll report, pulling the market-implied probability of a September hike down toward 50% from 63%. That helped risk assets, including Bitcoin. Layoffs also remained low, with initial jobless claims at 206,000 and continuing claims near 1.779M. The Fed has evidence that hiring is cooling, but not enough evidence that demand and inflation pressure have broken. 

The bigger issue is that the inflation pressure is no longer coming from one place. AI infrastructure is now also a macro input. Dell booked $60.9 billion of AI server orders last quarter and exited with a record $95 billion backlog, with AI server revenue doubling year over year to $16.4 billion. The company also flagged continued supply constraints in DRAM, NAND, CPUs, disk drives, and mature-node parts, which is the part that matters for prices. Demand is running ahead of what the supply chain can build. Energy is the second pressure point. Brent is trading in the mid-$90s and WTI near $90 after geopolitical headlines, with six commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday against a 10-day average of nearly 13.

For Bitcoin, lower hike odds, ETF demand, and demand for scarce assets are helping BTC hold the breakout. But this is not a full risk-on reset because the macro backdrop has not turned loose. Inflation risk is still alive through energy, AI infrastructure, tariffs, and sticky services prices. Bitcoin is being supported by buyers, not by a broad easing cycle.

Sincerely,
The Hermetica Team